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                                                  新零售
                                                  新零售 > 资讯 > 正文

                                                  报告|需求下沉供给提效:零售2019年度策略

                                                  核心观点

                                                  2019年宏观经济、消费仍面临较大压力,国内消费可能经历政策刺激回暖、自然见底、再缓慢复苏的几个阶段。在此过程中,由于零售行业后周期属性,自上而下的选股较为困?#36873;?#20294;周期下行时期反而是优秀企?#30340;?#21183;拓展、且估值便宜的时点,自下而上重点关注行?#30340;?#37096;格局变化和优质企业竞争力提升!

                                                  1、需求下沉

                                                  国内10亿3-6线人口为超市、电商、国货品牌等带来巨大发展空间。中国有10亿人口处于大众消费和品牌消费阶段,人口基数大、收入增长快、边际消费倾向高、认知程度较低、消费企业获利难度小,为超市、电商、国货品牌等带来巨大发展空间。看好战略重心向低线级市场渠道扩张并建立区域优势企业,建议增持:珀莱雅、老凤祥、周大生等。

                                                  2、供给提效

                                                  生鲜供应链价值显现,看好生?#26102;?#22418;高超市企业。生鲜超市一方面能够抵御线上冲击,另一方面在经济下行时期也具有较强的需求刚性,生鲜供应链价值逐渐显现;新零售逐步演进,助力线下零售供应链和前台消费者体验两端效率提升。建议增持:永辉超市、家家悦。

                                                  3、逆势成长

                                                  政策利好、风险偏好上行,布局逆周期、超跌成长个股。经济下行灵活用工等增加,人力资源服务行?#30340;?#32463;济周期向好,建议增持:科锐国际。其他超跌标的建议增持:天虹股份、跨境通、苏宁易购、拉芳家化等。

                                                  您可能也?#34892;?#36259;:

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